2005
Week 11
March 19, 2005

Hi

Got a broom? To sweep back the ocean?

This is my review of long term trends -- what the states are doing, the feds, opinion makers, and what I hear from my people and other senators. This is not divine revelation, just a listing of what is fairly clear.....it is in our future, no matter what we do.

I am not into prophecy here. It is the flow of the ocean. On each, there are folks who are sweeping against the current and some who sweep with it. You will want to sweep back the ocean on a few, help sweep the ocean in on others.

That is not a factor in my selection of items. I think our individual and group actions can affect the timelines, but will not change the eventual outcome.

Immigration of cheap labor. Some will huff and puff, but enough businesses want it that government efforts to stop it will fail.

World Trade. Here again we have a lot of brooms out. However, you may know someone who has recently purchased an item made in China. With instructions in five languages. There is no sign that this will be seriously hindered.

Concern over global warming. Some political types cried "Traitor" when Evangelicals recently stated that they are beginning to worry. Get used to it. People care about health and will care more.

Concern over mercury in the air. So called "Clean Air Acts" are labels for more polluted air and there is a beginning backlash. Mercury from coal burning plants affects the intelligence of children. The more we talk, on either side, the more people will be concerned. Change will be controversial and slow, but we will do it.

Loss of privacy. The government has a flurry of proposals, as do many of the state legislatures I reviewed, to protect our privacy. Will help, but will not protect you. You will have to do that.

Health care increased costs. My, a mass of studies and proposals. While the cost goes up 8 to 12% a year. Prescriptions are over priced and a surgeon can get thousands of dollars an hour, but it is far more than that. Bottom line: we want more tests and better health care. That costs $$$.

Increased cost on education, K-12 through college. Two factors that guarantee this one for Nebraska. We are trying to catch up, with some of the lowest salaries in the nation. Salaries are often 85% of the budget. Second, it is clear this is some of the best economic development we can do. Nebraska will not get more people, so we have to grow the ones we have.

Increased care and costs for child abuse and neglect. We just passed such a bill this week. Almost no objection. Same in other states, and in Fed proposals.

Kindergarten all day. People want it, but also clear evidence that we will get the money back down the road, with better-prepared students.

Quality preschools. Same pressures as on Kindergarten.

More federal power/control and less state options. You may know someone who has sent an email across state lines. State regs are losing their clout. This week we argued at length about how we control phone service. You may know someone who phones other states, connects to a cable service with nationwide tentacles, or is intrigued with computer service that will be plugged into an electric wall socket.

Social Security benefits. A few keep playing with the idea of cutting benefits for those under 45. Or 40. Or 35. Cannot happen. Will not happen. Personal accounts with tax advantages? It's here: called a 401K or IRA and is a very good deal. Any politician who messes with benefits for our elderly neighbors is dead meat.

Trash on TV. Increased violence in our culture. We grumble but I see no effective way to diminish it. We have to change ourselves.

A new standard of personal/family values. People really care about that and when we quit shouting at each other we will build a solid base. For example on the warmest debate there is, when gay families are accepted as families we can begin to really talk about family -- what it means, how we can grow, how we can change the dialog. It is already happening.

Gay respect and rights. The public attitude is changing, so it is just a matter of time. Like an ocean.
[To be clear, passion by a minority who oppose gay persons will continue pretty much like it is. We will continue to kill one gay each week, as we have done for years. The passion comes from inner fears of a few -- fear of their own thoughts and feelings. They will continue to adjust scripture to suit their feelings, mount campaigns, etc. However, without fear the subject is an afternoon conversation, with little passion. Human quirks will not change, so we cannot expect this one to change.]

A culture of teamwork. I am amazed at how many states are giving up on agency topdown authority in order to get more efficient use of tax dollars. Gallup University, in Omaha, is making big money by bringing in leaders from around the globe to learn how to do this. It is a wave.

Corporate control of public spending. If corporate types care about the subject you can be sure that key decision makers will dance that tune. The humorous part is these used-to-be-tough budget makers now accept deficits. And they really like "socialist" programs if that reduces their business expense. So count on it.

Smoking bans for public places. "Rights" have had the talk, but will not decide the outcome. Public health has the last word. Can a restaurant owner say "I decide how to run my own business. Hot water costs me money, so I will not use it."? Not.

Property taxes will go up. Across the nation, we think sales taxes are high enough. Those who have high salaries can stall income tax increases, with the possible exception of increased paybase caps for Social Security. So we shift the load from state to local, which is property tax. No way I see to stop the trend, especially if we do not control the prime driver, drug addiction. Praying for all of the above issues, as well as paying for them. People really do care and they will not let us put the vulnerable on the street.

Sweepingly,

Lowen

Next week: a list of issues that are up for grabs